Chapter 5: Things to consider
Before betting on football, it’s important to have a strong understanding on what to consider before placing a bet.
One team will typically have more valuable players than the other, causing them to be the favourites for fans and bookmakers. While this can feel like an obvious way to decide who’s going to win a match, football isn’t that straight forward of a game and it often doesn’t tell the full story.
The best example of this is Leicester in the 2015/16 premier league season. They had only recently been promoted and were 5000/1 to win the league. Despite this, the foxes went on to win the premier league in a season that will not soon be forgotten by football fans.
That’s why it’s important to look for more than just who is the favourite to win. Understand why they are the favourites, and if you agree with that decision.
Many websites will give users access to a recent form table. This will typically show a team’s previous 5 or 6 results. This can be crucial information to check before placing a bet.
Look at who they were playing in those games. Having 5 consecutive wins is always an indicator a team is playing well, but check to see if they had any difficult matches during that time.
A 5-0 victory would indicate they played better than scraping a 1-0, however take a look at some of the other match stats such as possession and shots to be sure of this.
These tables can also give bettors more than just a team’s recent form, they can offer a valuable insight into the team’s mindset.
Football betting is no stranger to shock results, and often times this can be caused by who wants it more.
Using the recent form tables, you can see where a team’s mindset may be at. If they’re going through a slump of form, see how they usually react.
Maybe they’ve been coasting wins recently and won’t have their guard up as much.
Another thing to look for is who needs the points? If a team is 1 loss away from relegation, then they may be willing to fight for every 50/50 and keep going until the whistle blows.
Derby matches are another important factor when considering a team’s motivation. Often times form can go out the window when facing a rival. This is where it can be valuable to see how teams typically fare against each other.
If one team tends to have an advantage over the other, then it could impact on both team’s psyche. Maybe one team or manager’s style of play is well suited at countering the others.
It is important to note that previous results are not always an indication of future performances. New managers and players can bring new philosophies to clubs and revitalise a team.
However, take a look at previous meetings between sides, see if any team typically has an advantage and try and work out why that is?
Football teams can often rely on certain players to drive them forward. Without those players, the team, and your bet could fall flat.
It’s important to look at who each team is missing and see how the team typically fares without them.
Another impact to consider before placing your bet, is squad depth. Who’s going to replace the missing man?
Certain teams will have stronger squad depth than others, being able to rotate players in and out with ease. However, some teams will be very reliant on their starting 11 staying fit.
Look at each team’s substitutes and reserves and see if they’ll be likely to make an impact on your bet.
If a team has been playing numerous games in a short time span, then it’s also possible they’ll rest some of their players. Potentially swaying the advantage.